ICYMI: Interpreting the Results, Setting the Stage: Election 2020

The media must set realistic expectations and report election results only after every valid vote has been counted. It will be nearly impossible to declare a winner on election night because of the massive amount of absentee ballots that must be validated and counted in the days and weeks after Nov. 3. Careful consideration is needed in the approach to the 2020 General Election and to interpret and report the unofficial tallies gathered on election night. 

“Election night data is not going to show a complete picture,” said Anna Scholl, executive director, Progress Virginia. “The massive shift to absentee voting will make ballots coming in by mail, including some not postmarked until Election Day, vital to determining the outcome. It is imperative to ensure the fairness and accuracy of the election before reporting results. The media especially, must prepare to wait until every vote is counted and validated before declaring a victory.”

How to Cover Election Day and Beyond [Columbia Journalism Review, Vivian Schiller and Garrett M. Graff]

There are ten clear principles media organizations should keep in mind as they plan their election night coverage. 

  1. Problems are not failures. Normal stuff goes wrong on Election Day; there are machines that don’t work, polling places that lose power or open late, voter rolls that get misdelivered. That’s not unusual.
    There is the possibility that there will be widespread problems on Election Day that are both important to cover and yet, taken together, still do not rise to the level of invalidating or delegitimizing the election results.
  2. Know the calendar. The public has been conditioned to expect a winner within hours of the polls closing, but the numbers collected on election night are not necessarily decisive […].Voters need to understand that just because a state takes a week or two—or longer—to finalize results, that doesn’t jeopardize the integrity of the system.
  3.  Manage expectations using careful language. Be precise. The media “projects”winners; it should not “declare” a winner, “call” a race, or “count” a vote. In reporting tallies, news organizations should explain what they know, how they know it, and what they don’t know yet.
  4. Explain why this year will be different. In past years, absentee or mail-in ballots in many states accounted for a small fraction of the overall total (circa 3 to 5 percent), whereas in this year’s election, states might see that number soar to 30 percent or more, making it much more difficult to know early on election night what the final results might be.
  5. Prepare for a possible shift as ballots are counted. Some races (and entire states) that look close on election night might not end up close at all, and what looks like an early lead might evaporate […]. Even in a regular, non-pandemic election, it is normal and expected that between six million and eight million more votes nationwide might trickle in as the week of Election Day unfolds and votes are tallied and finalized.
  6. Provide vote counts and election numbers in context. The way tallies are presented or reported can unintentionally undermine trust in the legitimacy of the election—especially this year, when record levels of mail-in votes will add complexity. Frame both results and any delays precisely. For example, avoid “precincts left to report”; instead, refer to “votes that have been received” in order to capture precincts that may report multiple sets of results—in-person v. absentee. Thus vote totals might shift well after “100 percent of precincts are reporting.” 
  7. Results aren’t “late” simply because the winner isn’t known on election night. States have until December 8 to report official counts to the federal government. There is no reason to inherently distrust the vote-counting speed. In fact, voters should expect that counts will not be available on the evening of November 3 or even potentially on November 4. If it’s close, it’s entirely appropriate, normal, and lawful for the counting to continue for days or weeks. What you think is “slow” actually isn’t—it’s a system functioning as expected to deliver a legitimate result.
  8. Don’t parrot premature claims of victory. There will be a perverse incentive this year for candidates to rush to declare victory, enabling themselves to then claim irregularities or problems are the election being “stolen.” Be wary of any such declarations that arrive before results become clear, and equivocate when reporting on outlandish claims that aren’t backed up by evidence. Don’t allow candidates to inject uncertainty or cast unfounded aspersions about the legitimacy of results simply by being first out of the gate to declare victory.
  9. Hold officials accountable while building public confidence in the system. How reporters frame and report on controversies, problems, and candidate complaints will help determine public confidence in the integrity of the outcome. The news media provide transparency and accountability about problems as they arise without unduly indicting the entire system.

Be prepared. Given the unprecedented challenges of this election, ground yourself in data, history, and constitutional and electoral law. Have constitutional and electoral law experts on standby. Have reporters and producers on the ground in key districts or precincts, particularly areas with minority and under-represented communities that have historically struggled with disenfranchisement and voting problems. Gather how many “absentee” or mail-in ballots states and jurisdictions have been sent out or returned, to help understand how many ballots might be outstanding and still need to be counted. […]Make sure in advance you’ve thought through the hard questions about democracy you’re likely to face this November.

“Election night data is not going to show a complete picture,” said Anna Scholl, executive director, Progress Virginia. “The massive shift to absentee voting will make ballots coming in by mail, including some not postmarked until Election Day, vital to determining the outcome. It is imperative to ensure the fairness and accuracy of the election before reporting results. The media especially, must prepare to wait until every vote is counted and validated before declaring a victory.”

How to Cover Election Day and Beyond [Columbia Journalism Review, Vivian Schiller and Garrett M. Graff]

There are ten clear principles media organizations should keep in mind as they plan their election night coverage. 

  1. Problems are not failures. Normal stuff goes wrong on Election Day; there are machines that don’t work, polling places that lose power or open late, voter rolls that get misdelivered. That’s not unusual.
    There is the possibility that there will be widespread problems on Election Day that are both important to cover and yet, taken together, still do not rise to the level of invalidating or delegitimizing the election results.
  2. Know the calendar. The public has been conditioned to expect a winner within hours of the polls closing, but the numbers collected on election night are not necessarily decisive […].Voters need to understand that just because a state takes a week or two—or longer—to finalize results, that doesn’t jeopardize the integrity of the system.
  3.  Manage expectations using careful language. Be precise. The media “projects”winners; it should not “declare” a winner, “call” a race, or “count” a vote. In reporting tallies, news organizations should explain what they know, how they know it, and what they don’t know yet.
  4. Explain why this year will be different. In past years, absentee or mail-in ballots in many states accounted for a small fraction of the overall total (circa 3 to 5 percent), whereas in this year’s election, states might see that number soar to 30 percent or more, making it much more difficult to know early on election night what the final results might be.
  5. Prepare for a possible shift as ballots are counted. Some races (and entire states) that look close on election night might not end up close at all, and what looks like an early lead might evaporate […]. Even in a regular, non-pandemic election, it is normal and expected that between six million and eight million more votes nationwide might trickle in as the week of Election Day unfolds and votes are tallied and finalized.
  6. Provide vote counts and election numbers in context. The way tallies are presented or reported can unintentionally undermine trust in the legitimacy of the election—especially this year, when record levels of mail-in votes will add complexity. Frame both results and any delays precisely. For example, avoid “precincts left to report”; instead, refer to “votes that have been received” in order to capture precincts that may report multiple sets of results—in-person v. absentee. Thus vote totals might shift well after “100 percent of precincts are reporting.” 
  7. Results aren’t “late” simply because the winner isn’t known on election night. States have until December 8 to report official counts to the federal government. There is no reason to inherently distrust the vote-counting speed. In fact, voters should expect that counts will not be available on the evening of November 3 or even potentially on November 4. If it’s close, it’s entirely appropriate, normal, and lawful for the counting to continue for days or weeks. What you think is “slow” actually isn’t—it’s a system functioning as expected to deliver a legitimate result.
  8. Don’t parrot premature claims of victory. There will be a perverse incentive this year for candidates to rush to declare victory, enabling themselves to then claim irregularities or problems are the election being “stolen.” Be wary of any such declarations that arrive before results become clear, and equivocate when reporting on outlandish claims that aren’t backed up by evidence. Don’t allow candidates to inject uncertainty or cast unfounded aspersions about the legitimacy of results simply by being first out of the gate to declare victory.
  9. Hold officials accountable while building public confidence in the system. How reporters frame and report on controversies, problems, and candidate complaints will help determine public confidence in the integrity of the outcome. The news media provide transparency and accountability about problems as they arise without unduly indicting the entire system.

Be prepared. Given the unprecedented challenges of this election, ground yourself in data, history, and constitutional and electoral law. Have constitutional and electoral law experts on standby. Have reporters and producers on the ground in key districts or precincts, particularly areas with minority and under-represented communities that have historically struggled with disenfranchisement and voting problems. Gather how many “absentee” or mail-in ballots states and jurisdictions have been sent out or returned, to help understand how many ballots might be outstanding and still need to be counted. […]Make sure in advance you’ve thought through the hard questions about democracy you’re likely to face this November.